Brexit blockers: 4 things that could slow down the break-up.
Before Thursday, the process for triggering Brexit was a lot more straightforward.
But the High Court's bombshell ruling
means Prime Minister Theresa May's government cannot begin the formal
process of taking the UK out of the European Union until it gets the
approval of parliament.
The government has vowed to appeal the ruling and the Supreme Court is likely to hear the case in early December.
Firstly, MPs need to approve a new bill...
The
government must draft a Brexit bill for parliament to vote on -- and
the process could take anywhere from a few weeks to much longer.
Once
a bill is drafted it will be presented to the Members of Parliament in
the House of Commons for a first read-through and a debate.
Then
there will be a second reading, more debating, and the draft will be
handed to smaller sub-committee of MPs for more scrutiny.
"The committee will then go through the
bill line by line, suggesting, debating, and voting on amendments,"
former Scottish Labour Party MP and Leave campaigner Tom Harris
explained to CNN.
"That process could take around three or four months. But politically, I doubt they'll want it to take too long."
Next
there will be a third reading, yet more debating, and if everyone is
happy, the bill will be passed to the House of Lords -- where the
process starts all over again.
...then the House of Lords have to give it the OK
The
House of Lords has similar process of going through a bill to the House
of Commons. However there will be no sub-committee, and unlike MPs,
Lords are not elected by the public.
"The Lords have no accountability to constituents at all, which is both a strength and a weakness," said Harris.
"In this case, they will need to decide
whether to honor the will of the British people in the referendum -- and
I suspect they will."
If the Lords make any amendments to the bill, it will then head back to the House of Commons -- adding more time to the process.
What about the politicians who backed Remain?
Added to this potential game of ping pong between the two houses are the MPs who campaigned to remain in the EU.
While it's unlikely that enough MPs will
vote against triggering Article 50 to stop Brexit altogether, there may
be lengthy wrangling over a bill that pleases everyone, said Matthew
Goodwin, professor of politics and international relations at the
University of Kent.
"There could
potentially be further delays, particularly as Labour, the Scottish
National Party, and Liberal Democrat MPs are demanding more detail on
the proposed Brexit deal," he told CNN.
"Though
overall, 421 seats in England and Wales voted for Brexit, so for MPs to
push against the popular vote would be political suicide. "
Then there's the Scottish MPs to consider.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously vowed to keep her country -- which voted 68% to 32% in favor of Remain -- in the EU. Following Thursday's court ruling, Sturgeon said Scottish National Party MPs "will certainly not vote for anything that undermines the will or the interests of the Scottish people."
Other legal cases
Thursday's case was brought to the High Court by investment manager Gina Miller and hairdresser Deir dos Santos in an attempt to "uphold the highest standards of transparency and democratic accountability."
Could it also pave the way for more successful cases against the government?
Harris says that while more legal challenges could arise, it's unlikely the courts would rule in favor of them.
"I
think now it makes it more difficult for individual legal cases to
succeed, because the courts would have taken the view that parliament
has already been given a say on the matter," said Harris.
"So in that respect, perhaps the high court has even done the government a favor."
Whether May agrees with him, is another matter.
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